Experts bank on Reserve Bank rate rise - MONEY market traders and economists are betting on an official rate rise tomorrow when the Reserve Bank holds its monthly board meeting in Sydney. The central bank surprised most experts last month when it maintain
The RBA is moving early to raise rates to counter the inflationary effects of the recovering Australian and global economies.
Most economists predict economic growth will accelerate this year, fuelling expectations of more rate rises.
The central bank will make its rate decision before the release of key economic data on Wednesday, with the National Accounts likely to show Australia expanded by 0.9 per cent in the December quarter.
Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan said on his website yesterday the Government was confident the economy would strengthen this year.
"Whatever the numbers are on Wednesday, we're confident we can recover strongly," he said. "But we're far from complacent given some sectors of our economy are still vulnerable and we're seeing patchy outcomes in other advanced economies."
The treasurer would not comment on whether the RBA would lift official rates but hinted that it might be on the cards.
"Previous statements by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens have indicated that recent rate increases are part of the process of moving rates from emergency lows to more normal levels as economic activity normalises," he said.
"Any rate rise is of course very tough on family budgets, but it's also worth remembering that official interest rates are currently 350 basis points below their peak a year and a half ago.
"This means that a family with a $300,000 mortgage is paying around $600 a month less -- or $7100 annually -- in mortgage repayments."
Eleven of 16 economists AAP surveyed tipped the RBA would lift the cash rate a quarter of a percentage point.
"A strong labour market and very robust business expenditure are all adding up to a very good dynamic for the domestic economy, which we don't think the RBA will be comfortable in continuing to ignore," Commonwealth Bank economist James McIntyre said.
ANZ economist Shane Lee said the risks around inflation had led him to forecast a 25 basis point increase.
However, St George acting chief economist Justin Smirk predicted the RBA would stay on the sidelines in March. "We are seeing signs of the housing sector and the interest rate-sensitive sectors responding to higher rates and the removal of fiscal stimulus," he said.
Source: news.com.au
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